The federal government first regulated how far vehicles must be able travel on a single gallon of fuel in the 1970s, under conditions that looked a lot like 2026: high gasoline prices, blocked oil supplies, and U.S. leaders stoking conflict in the Middle East.
At the time, the government felt it had to protect American consumers from tumultuous global energy markets, requiring cars to go further on less gas.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he has moved to significantly reduce gas mileage targets as part of his larger push to eliminate federal support for electric vehicles.
“I have just approved new Fuel Economy Standards that TERMINATE Sleepy Joe Biden and Pete Boot-EDGE-EDGE’s ridiculous EV Mandate,” the president said in his post.
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“These new Standards will take the waste out of building cars in America,” Trump wrote. “That means LOWER PRICES, saving families thousands on a new, beautiful, and safe car — Far better than the Environmental Monsters that we were building heretofore. Every Manufacturer, from General Motors to Ford to Stellantis, has called me wanting to build here, and now they can!”
According to the government’s own analysis of the proposed rule, the move could lead to drivers paying hundreds more for gas each year and worsen the country’s ability to weather shocks to oil prices.
Fuel standards generally require vehicle manufacturers to make their entire fleet, on average, more efficient each year. Biden-era standards were meant to get Americans’ cars to a fuel economy of 50.4 miles per gallon by 2031. As proposed, the Trump administration’s change reduces that target to 34.5 miles per gallon — a standard lower than the average fuel economy of the existing U.S. fleet, as of 2024.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has argued the previous Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards amounted to a mandate for automakers to produce electric vehicles, and that changing the rules will allow companies to produce cars that are more affordable and safer.
That justification, however, defies the government’s own research required to change the rule, and undercuts the history of the regulation.
“I feel like we’re reliving exactly the moment that they were designed for,” said Dave Cooke, who researches fuel efficiency at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the influence that geopolitical turbulence can have on American drivers.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg responded to Trump’s post reversing the Biden-era standards.
“U.S. manufacturing jobs are down under Trump, including in the auto industry. His strategy failed, and so will this,” Buttigieg wrote. “Lowering standards will accelerate what he has already been doing: handing the clean tech future to China and forcing Americans to pay more at the pump.”
Oil shocks were front of mind for Congress and former President Gerald Ford when the first CAFE standards were created half a century ago in response to the 1973 oil embargo. The goal was to lessen the country’s dependence on foreign fuel as gas prices soared.
Throughout the last 50 years, CAFE standards have slowly made cars, trucks and other light vehicles more efficient — more than doubling their average miles per gallon. Since a revision under the Obama administration, CAFE standards have saved drivers over $300 billion in fuel costs, Cooke said.
The new standards will represent a major philosophical change.
As proposed, the Trump administration standards don’t consider EVs or plug-in hybrid cars, bringing down the average fuel economy goals significantly.
“They’re only looking at the worst-performing vehicles, and then saying ‘Well, these worst performers can only get so much better,’” Cooke said.
The overhaul is a culmination of the administration’s push to unravel Biden-era efforts to support a transition to electric vehicles. Trump has eliminated tax credits for EVs, blocked California’s strict emissions rules, eliminated the 2009 Endangerment Finding that underpinned vehicle emissions standards, and signed legislation that set penalties for violating fuel efficiency standards to $0.
Despite those efforts, Americans have continued to buy EVs, albeit at a slower pace. Sales of fully electric cars have dropped since the disappearance of tax credits, but hybrid sales continue to climb.
Automobile manufacturers and federal officials have argued that the current CAFE standards are too hard to achieve, and that the Biden administration relied too much on EVs to push up the country’s collective fuel efficiency.
“Given the slowing growth of EV sales in the U.S., the previously finalized CAFE standards are simply unachievable,” Michael Hartrick, with the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a public hearing on the rules earlier this year.
In an analysis of the regulation when it was proposed, officials with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said requiring automakers to make big improvements to fuel economy has “distracted their attention,” and shifted resources away from safety. The White House says the Biden-era standards would have raised the cost of a new car by nearly $1,000.
But the NHTSA’s own analysis of the rule change paints a darker picture, with drivers spending up to $1,400 more on gas, and thousands of auto industry jobs disappearing.
When federal officials analyzed the proposal for revised CAFE standards, they also excluded electric vehicles from modeling, which means their analysis isn’t reflective of real-world conditions. But in another model used for environmental impact analysis, where EVs are included, the same trends apply.
The administration’s analysis shows the energy security benefits from using less fuel decrease as cars become less efficient. Risks to the U.S. economy from global oil market shocks increase.
The number of traffic fatalities and the amount of property damage from car crashes would drop, the official analysis says, because people drive less when they get fewer miles per gallon.
But health issues related to increased emissions, like ER visits, worse asthma cases, heart attacks and premature deaths, would increase.