A super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune has nearly doubled its broadcast advertising efforts in Texas to support Republican Ken Paxton — bringing the group’s spending total to nearly $119 million as they try to fend off Democrat James Talarico.
The new spending on TV reservations constitutes a major jump from the $63 million Texas PAC had disclosed through Sept. 18, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact and FEC filings.
A recent rush to spend big reflects deeper party concerns about keeping a reliably red seat held by outgoing Sen. John Cornyn. It also far outpaces President Donald Trump’s super PAC contributions for the race so far this month.
Senate Republicans have rarely concentrated resources so heavily on Texas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the upper chamber since 1988 and is home to one of the country’s most expensive media markets. But recent polling indicates that Talarico, a state representative, is Democrats’ best chance at flipping a Senate seat in Texas, outpacing other recent party hopefuls like Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred in 2024.
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Republicans ramped up spending in the state throughout the first two weeks of September. In addition to Senate Republicans’ investment in the race, mostly concentrated on broadcast and digital advertising, Trump’s MAGA Inc. dropped $10 million at the beginning of the month — following weeks of lawmakers’ public and private pleas to the president to spend more of his war chest to support Republicans in tight races.
Thune has been the most prominent Republican encouraging Trump to get more involved in Texas, though he and other lawmakers are prohibited by campaign finance law from directing super PAC spending. He has acknowledged Paxton’s race will be expensive: The Senate Leadership Fund super PAC projected that it could take up to $250 million to keep the seat red with Paxton on the ballot in November, Punchbowl reported last year, compared with a cost of $25 million to $70 million to help Cornyn win reelection.
PAC spending from Thune and Trump in Texas now heavily surpasses expenditures in the other competitive Senate races this cycle. This month, the pair have dropped roughly $30 million in Ohio to protect Sen. Jon Husted, $16.5 million for Mike Rogers in Michigan and nearly $16 million to boost Michael Whatley in North Carolina. Combined, both super PACs and adjacent branches have spent upwards of $4 million to $8 million each to support Republican candidates in Georgia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Alaska.
Thune’s committees have also boosted Sens. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska and Susan Collins in Maine, though Trump’s groups have not disclosed major spending in either race.
Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on Wednesday directed party members up for reelection to run like they are behind, Semafor reported. The South Carolina Republican singled out GOP-held seats like Texas and Iowa, which have seldom attracted as much spending and attention as seats in more traditional battleground states.
Entering September, the NSRC had not spent heavily in Texas, instead sending more than $10 million to Ohio and $8 million to Iowa and North Carolina last month, the political committee reported. They also spent between $1.5 million and $5 million on Republicans in New Hampshire, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Alaska and South Carolina.
Talarico had maintained a substantial financial advantage on the airwaves before Republicans’ spending blitz this month, with the Democratic campaign spending about $31.3 million on advertising in the summer compared with Paxton’s reservations, worth just over $150,000 by the end of August. Two weeks after Labor Day, broadcast ad reservations boosting the Republican candidate now more than double the $54 million spent in Talarico’s favor, AdImpact reported.
Paxton, whom many Republicans have characterized as a weak candidate, has repeatedly and increasingly referenced Talarico’s strong poll showing in fundraising emails. Multiple pro-Paxton messages this week have highlighted the Democratic state representative’s high ActBlue small donor hauls from August, saying Talarico had “bought” every point of his polling lead.
“Ken’s ads are finally on the air,” one Sept. 22 email reads. “The momentum is real. But James Talarico is about to take that $12.98 million and pour every dollar of it into Texas television between now and November 3rd.”
But six weeks out from the midterms, some prominent Texas Republicans are keeping away. Former President George W. Bush and Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in a contentious primary runoff, held a Republican fundraiser in Dallas on Monday night to boost battleground Senate candidates — except for Paxton, who reportedly was not on the invite list.
Paxton “doesn’t need the money,” Cornyn told reporters on Tuesday when asked about the event, adding that dollars can go farther in smaller states.
“There’s a limited resource and so at some point, the powers that be are going to have to make decisions about where you spend money, and if you spend it for lost causes in some of these places that aren’t looking good,” the Texas Republican said. “Should you move that money to places where it might make a difference?”
When asked if Paxton counted as a “lost cause,” Cornyn responded, “I’m going to leave that up to the voters.”
Texas candidates have criticized Republican leadership for not spending enough in the past: Sen. Ted Cruz blasted then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the political committee not directing substantial dollars to his 2024 race.
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