BATH, Maine — The sun has just emerged from over the Kennebec River, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins is ready to greet workers ahead of the first shift at Bath Iron Works.
Shipbuilders, machinists and welders arrive in fits and starts ahead of the 7 a.m. whistle. Collins and roughly a dozen supporters and campaign staff have one goal: for these union workers to gobble up boxes of T-shirts. The navy blue tees feature “SUSAN” on the pocket (the “USA” in red, white and blue, of course) and “BATH BUILT IS BEST BUILT” displayed around the silhouette of a Navy destroyer.
“T-shirts! Get your T-shirts here!” one staffer yells as workers approach, doing his best impression of a hot dog vendor at a minor league baseball game.
The moment is important for Collins’ team, who confide before the predawn event that it’s a test of sorts. If workers take the shirts? A good sign of where the senator is two months out from Mainers deciding whether to hand her a sixth term in office. And if they don’t? An ominous sign of her prospects.
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Luckily for them, medium and 2XL shirts are gone with time to spare before work starts. Even those not taking the shirts are polite enough, telling staffers, “Thanks, I’m all set,” or a straight up “No, thank you,” with minimal hostilities.
There’s a reason the crew was very familiar with Collins. She’s helped steer billions of dollars and years of Pentagon contracts to the shipyard, which is the state’s fourth-largest employer. Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee, has widespread union support, but Collins retains some loyalty among working-class voters.
Collins Argues Her Senate Seniority Translates Into Millions for Maine
It’s part of yet another all-politics-is-local strategy that Collins, the Senate Appropriations Committee chair, is banking on to lock down another term. Check out a sampling of her ads or campaign appearances and the message is clear: She’s responsible for securing money to rebuild a fire station or other local projects that generate jobs. That constituent services work is what Democrats concede is formidable.
“It’s given me a once-in-a-century opportunity to really deliver for the people of Maine. … I have delivered for small communities all across the state,” Collins told The Washington Sun in an interview, noting that 45 new and rebuilt fire stations exist due to federal money she’s brought home. “That matters.”
Despite that pitch, Collins finds herself in yet another reelection dogfight where she’s working to defy political gravity.
She’s the lone Senate Republican representing a state carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris two years ago. But increasingly it’s the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies that is causing her constituents to consider electing a Democrat.
Trump’s Immigration and Trade Policies Cause Headaches
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed a Colombian national in Biddeford, Maine, less than two months ago amid a surge of operations in nearby Portland. But the individual wasn’t the target of the ICE operation, and the fallout has rippled across the state.
More recently, trade negotiations with Canada went belly-up, leading to a nasty break in a longstanding relationship. Collins has pleaded with the administration to resume negotiations, as her state shares a 611-mile border with the neighbor to the north and exported $1.3 billion worth of goods to Canada last year —- 41% of the state’s exports. Instead, the president is posting memes about the Canadian prime minister.
“It is [a lot]. It’s certainly not helpful. There’s no doubt about that,” Collins told The Sun, adding that voters are “perplexed” and “more puzzled than anything” about the Canada trade war.
According to a Fox News poll taken in early August, 59% of voters in the state view Trump unfavorably — and that was before the trade spat.
It’s also not an accident that Collins is trying to put more distance between herself and the president. During an event in Biddeford, Collins called on ICE to enact more reforms beyond the recent equipping of agents with body cameras. She argued the agency should stop making arrests at “sensitive” locales, including schools, hospitals, doctors offices and places of worship.
She also criticized the president’s lack of strategy for launching a war with Iran, which has reached a seventh month and has grown deeply unpopular with Americans.
“The president clearly did not have a well-thought-out plan for how to deal with Iran. To me, it was utterly predictable that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz,” she told reporters. “That should not have come as a surprise, and the administration and the Department of Defense should have been prepared for that.”
Gas prices in the state are averaging more than $4 per gallon. Mainers are also bracing for rising heating oil costs in the coming months, an issue that could crop up closer to Election Day.
The series of events has Collins’ allies wondering how much more of this she can handle and still win. One source close to the longtime senator noted that of all the potential administration-induced impediments that could crop up, a second ICE shooting is the one that worries them the most and could be too difficult to overcome.
“It’s frustrating. It’s almost exhausting,” Jason Levesque, the former Republican mayor of Auburn, Maine, and a political commentator, said of the string of happenings.
Collins has never been a favorite of the president, and the feeling is mutual.
He said in June that she is “not my best friend at all,” all the while touting her vote streak even though “sometimes she voted against me.” While Trump has indicated support for her, there is a gulf between the two, as they don’t have much of a relationship.
“They don’t interact often,” the source close to Collins said, noting that they have cordial interactions when they see each other at White House events.
“She’s not calling him about policy stuff, and he’s not calling her either,” the source added.
Instead, her preferred point of contact in the administration is Vice President JD Vance, who she became friendly with during his brief senatorial tenure.
Vance recently told supporters during a late-August event in the state that Collins has been to the Naval Observatory at least a half-dozen times, yet is “the most independent member” of the Senate and “sometimes makes my job just a little bit harder.”
There’s a different type of independence that will be a factor in November. For the first time during the Trump era, Collins will be running without the president on the ballot.
Although the two are like oil and water politically, they complimented each other well across the state in 2020, with Trump giving Collins a boost in rural areas while she overperformed him along the coast. She toppled Sara Gideon, her Democratic opponent, by 8.5 percentage points and cleared 50%, bypassing the state’s ranked choice system entirely.
This go-round, Collins has sought to beef up her support with some of Trump’s most ardent backers. She repaired what was once a fraught relationship with former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage, the favorite to succeed Rep. Jared Golden in the 2nd Congressional District.
She’s relying on her record controlling federal spending bills, including what she has procured for rural areas. Collins has touted that she secured more than $428 million in earmarks for the state. She also has the financial muscle to get that message out after being drowned out by Democratic spending in 2020.
“I know the people of rural Maine. I am one of the people of rural Maine,” she said. “I think people understand authenticity and that they also appreciate how hard I work for rural Maine.”
Collins admits the race against Jackson, the former state Senate president who only entered the race after Graham Platner’s swift exit stage left after being accused of sexual assault, is not the race she expected.
“We had to start all over again,” Collins said. “This is the strangest race I’ve ever seen.”
Democrats Work to Nationalize the Race After Platner’s Messy Exit
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has maintained a defiant face about the race, repeatedly declaring that this is the year the party topples Collins. Democrats note that Collins’ approval rating has never been lower and that she votes with Trump at a healthy clip. And they stress that Collins’ vote to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominees helped put a stake in Roe v. Wade.
But Democrats in the state remain less sure this strategy will work.
One Maine-based Democratic operative argued that the path for Democrats centers around nationalizing the race and keeping Jackson as generic of a candidate as possible, something Republicans are quickly trying to change. Outside groups — and even Collins herself — have pointed to Jackson’s having two children with his longtime partner, who is his second cousin.
“If Democrats and Troy can keep this race about Donald Trump, affordability and what Susan Collins has or hasn’t done to help with those things, put a check on those things, then Troy has a path to victory, even though it is hard,” the operative said.
“The challenge is if this race becomes about Susan Collins versus Troy Jackson or anybody else,” they continued. “Susan Collins versus a specific person is really hard because Susan Collins is not a bad politician.”
Even Jackson’s most ardent supporters acknowledge that overcoming Collins’ long-standing ties is a high hurdle.
“I think he’s got a very challenging road ahead,” Portland’s Democratic mayor, Mark Dion, who was among those introducing Jackson at his first town hall in Lewiston, told The Sun in an interview.
The party is still picking up the pieces after Platner’s implosion in July, which forced party activists to choose a replacement that some voters are still smarting over. During his Lewiston town hall, a self-described independent who votes Democratic pressed Jackson, pointing to advertisements that “keep referring to ‘our movement’ that ‘we built.’”
“It feels disingenuous because the movement that was building was built by someone else,” said Tori Leigh. “You weren’t elected by the voters.”
“You are right. I didn’t build this movement. I’ve been saying that all along,” Jackson responded. “This isn’t about Troy Jackson. But I don’t even think this is about Graham. I think it’s about people across this state that know there’s something fundamentally wrong with the way things are going.”
Jackson peppered the rally with criticisms of Collins, arguing that she has lost touch with the state — citing her decision against holding town hall meetings. The pair recently agreed to four debates, with the first one set for Oct. 6.
The biggest roar at the town hall came when Jackson pressed that ICE should be “eliminated.”
There are also fears of an enthusiasm gap on the left.
Multiple attendees at the Lewiston event were quick to note that Platner held a standing room only event at the same location last fall that also featured a place for an overflow crowd. The Jackson event, meanwhile, featured dozens of empty seats in the back of the room.
The Maine-based Democratic operative argued that while state Democrats have reasons for excitement now, that’s “mostly fueled by being mad at Collins, not excited for Troy.”
Other top Democrats conceded that the winds have shifted since the Platner exodus.
“He’s not a pop star. He’d be the first one to tell you that,” Dion said of Jackson, adding that he is more than willing to trade “pop star status for competency.”
Polling since Jackson’s entrance has been limited, with a pair of surveys taken since the start of August showing him in a lead within the margin of error. Operatives from both parties are quick to note that the state is notoriously hard to poll.
Another question surrounding Jackson is whether he can win over enough independents and Democrats who’ve backed Collins over the years. If the Lewiston event is any indication, he has some work to do.
Tom Soule, a Democrat and a retired school principal from nearby Bowdoinham, noted that he’s supported Collins throughout the years but is considering supporting Jackson in order to more effectively take on Trump. He wasn’t a fan of Platner’s but showed up to check out Jackson’s pitch.
But Jackson’s inability to explain how he would enact change rather than tick through his positions on issues frustrated him.
He ended up leaving the event early, telling The Sun on his way out: “Not impressed.”
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