The path for Republicans to keep their Senate majority is getting smaller by the day — a once-unthinkable prospect for the party.
Republican members for months have acknowledged that rising gas prices and other costs, largely stemming from the Iran war, are a massive problem, especially for their electoral prospects. That talk finally hit reality in recent days as the bottom fell out of polls in a number of states.
Republicans are breaking with President Donald Trump, big ad buys are being canceled, several solidly red states are starting to look shaky, and piles of money are being diverted to places where Republicans were hoping they wouldn’t have to spend.
“Six months ago, the reaction was sort of, ‘Eh, we’ve got problems with the Republicans, and they’re not perfect, but the other side’s crazy now,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) told The Washington Sun. “Now, it’s more like, ‘Both sides are crazy.’”
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“The people are upset about the cost of living and they’re confused about Iran,” Kennedy said, adding multiple times that the election is going to be “close.”
Republicans earlier this year had a straightforward view of the midterms. The plan was to compete and limit damage in a trio of battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina and Maine), while successfully playing defense in Republican territory and limiting big spends where they didn’t have to.
That plan is going sideways. The Georgia race, between Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and GOP Rep. Mike Collins has fallen further out of the Republican column, with the Cook Political Report rating the contest as “Likely Democrat” last week.
In North Carolina, a top outside super PAC last week canceled $6.5 million in ad spending to back Republican Michael Whatley, who is badly trailing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper — an indication the group didn’t believe the money would have moved the needle in Whatley’s direction.
“It’s very difficult for a Republican to win statewide,” said the state’s retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, adding that Whatley has done little to differentiate himself from the overall GOP brand. “Right now, his work is to go after the unaffiliated and having some separation. I don’t see any evidence of separation between [Whatley] and the president.”
Republicans expect more dollar slashing in the two states in the near future in order to shore up support elsewhere, despite the party’s sizable financial advantage.
“Those candidates have [had] their chances,” one Republican operative working on Senate races said, noting the big money spent in both states in recent months and that the numbers have remained largely unchanged. “Time to go find other races.”
In Maine, the race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is neck-and-neck, with public polls showing each holding a small lead. Collins has found herself on the defensive after a ProPublica report accused her of taking part in a pay-to-play scheme involving a convicted defense contractor. She has vigorously denied the allegations.
However, Republicans have made some progress defining Jackson, with 47 percent viewing him unfavorably — a number that has ticked up by 15 percentage points since late July after heavy spending by outside groups.
But Republicans now have turned their attention to a foursome of red states that are likely to determine who controls the upper chamber next year. It’s a position they didn’t expect to be in.
Ohio and Alaska are atop that list. Both feature incumbents who are facing headwinds that are proving difficult to overcome.
Republican Sen. Jon Husted is playing defense on numerous fronts against former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown has repeatedly gone after Husted’s support for data centers during his tenure as lieutenant governor, with Brown labeling him “the face of data centers” in Ohio.
In a sign of the trouble Husted faces, the Senate will stay in town for the coming week, in part to vote on a bill aimed at having tech companies cover data center-driven energy costs.
The race is quickly becoming a money pit for both parties, with over $300 million pouring into the state between past and future ad spending, according to AdImpact.
Public polls have shown Brown leading by 4 percentage points — a margin similar to the advantage he held against Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno two years ago. Moreno ended up defeating him by 3.5 percentage points.
The question is whether the polling drop-off experienced in other states is indicative of the coming final result or if Republicans just aren’t paying attention yet and will vote GOP when it counts. One Republican operative with Ohio ties argued that the sudden downturn in the numbers is similar to what the party experienced around the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — but adding that they don’t believe high prices and the war are yet to the point they’d see 2008 or 2020-like results.
“We’ve been through two massive economic shocks in the last 20 years,” the operative with Ohio ties said. “We know what those things look like, right? Does this feel like one of those right now?”
“It’s bad out there. No one feels good,” conceded one senior Senate Republican aide. “But there’s still time for things to improve.”
For Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), the dynamics are even worse than elsewhere on the map. Gas prices are eclipsing $5 a gallon and diesel costs are hovering around $6.70 a gallon — both higher than the national average.
Far-flung parts of the state are being hit even harder. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) noted the price in one key fishing area was $12.99 gallon.
“People are feeling it, and they don’t like it. They don’t like it at all,” Murkowski recently told reporters.
Alaska is hard for operatives to wrap their arms around due to the state’s ranked-choice voter system and the difficulty of polling in Alaska, leaving them largely in the dark until voters actually go to the polls.
Texas and Iowa round out the quartet, with Republicans showing signs of being rattled in both states despite continued hope that each ultimately will fall into their column. But it’s going to cost them.
In Texas, the battle between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has forced the party in power to spend heavily to pull the race back into their column. A top super PAC aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund has booked $117 million in past and future ad spending — a number that is expected to increase.
Republicans argued earlier this year that backing Sen. John Cornyn over Paxton would have avoided this exact scenario, which is forcing the party to spend heavily when it may not have needed to otherwise.
“There’s a limited resource, and I think at some point, you know, the powers that be are going to have to make decisions about where you spend money, and if you spend it for lost causes in some of these places that aren’t looking good, should you move that money to places where it might make a difference,” Cornyn told reporters last week. When asked if Paxton is a lost cause, Cornyn responded. “I’m going to leave that up to the voters.”
Like Cornyn, the party is not oozing with confidence. One Texas-based Republican strategist told The Sun that they view the race as a 50-50 proposition, after having said in mid-August that they believed it was 60-40 in Paxton’s favor.
In Iowa, polls shifted against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in her race against Democrat Josh Turek, showing them in a toss-up. Weeks after voting against a war powers resolution, Hinson called for an end to the Iran conflict, citing sky-high gas prices in her state.
The news gets worse from there. Some in the party are fretting that they’ve had to spend time and resources in Kansas to defend Sen. Roger Marshall’s seat.
A first-term member, Marshall has been under siege over his purported lack of ties to the state. The concern has led outside groups to spend seven-figure amounts to boost him, with Vice President JD Vance recently stopping in the state for an event. Republicans admit that months ago, Kansas wasn’t anywhere near their radar.
“I would’ve said that doesn’t sound right,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia).
Republicans have also talked up their chances in New Hampshire and Michigan as possible flip opportunities, though both could be tall tasks. Operatives believe New Hampshire is the more likely of the two to go red, given Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s sizable polling advantage in her reelection campaign.
Overall, Republicans believe the avenue to keeping their majority exists — but few are thrilled with how things are playing out.
“Is it a shitty environment? Absolutely. Does it seem to be getting worse? Absolutely,” a second Republican operative involved in Senate races said. “Is it possible to keep the majority? It’s still possible.”
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