Democrats Need Third-Party Help to Win Senate Majority

Democrats’ path to victory could require independent candidates peeling away conservative votes in several states.

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a rally

Democrat James Talarico could benefit from a third-party candidate in Texas’ Senate race. (Brenda Bazán/AP)

Call them the 49 percent majority makers, a path blazed 20 years ago that Democrats probably need to replicate this fall.

Back in 2006, when they gained six seats and the Senate majority, Democrats relied on a trio of victories that came courtesy of a plurality: Claire McCaskill winning Missouri with 49.6 percent of the vote; Jon Tester winning Montana with 49.2 percent; and Jim Webb winning Virginia with 49.6 percent.

In each race, a small but significant bloc of voters ignored the two major parties’ candidates and cast ballots for independent options or wrote in their own alternative. Democratic challengers didn’t need to clear 50 percent to win in those solidly red states, opening the door for plurality victories and the narrowest possible majority, 51-49, in January 2007.